#1 Auburn (27-2) at #22 Texas A&M (20-9)

Auburn travels to College Station to take on Texas A&M tonight coming off 6 straight wins including the last three by at least 12 points. Texas A&M, however, is trending the other way. They have lost 4 straight games including two of which were at home, so they are reeling a bit and looking to find their footing heading into the SEC tournament and March Madness. Buzz Williams will surely have his team ready to play with their hair on fire tonight, while Auburn has already clinched the SEC regular season title. This game means different things for both teams, which should make for an interesting game in front of a fired up Aggie crowd.

Outlook for Auburn:

Auburn has been fantastic all season, especially over the last few weeks. In their last game, Johni Broome only had 9 points and Auburn didn’t even need him. Miles Kelly had 30 points including 8 threes, Chad Baker-Mazara scored 22, and Tahaad Pettiford poured in 21 off the bench. This was a very well-rounded effort from the Auburn guards, which shows that they can win in a multitude of ways. Texas A&M’s defense likes to give up the three ball, so that could be a positive for Bruce Pearl’s squad if they continue to shoot the ball well. Over Texas A&M’s four-game losing streak, their opponents have made 9 or more threes in every game. This is no coincidence, as it is the Aggies’ defensive style. Auburn might struggle to get Johni Broome going again because of the defensive scheme, but Miles Kelly, Pettiford, and Baker-Mazara have seemed to work out just fine. The main concern for Auburn will be motivation. They are on the road in a hostile environment after winning at Kentucky on Saturday and locking up the SEC regular season title. This means they don’t really have anything to play for other than keeping things rolling into the conference tournament. However, if Auburn has guys with nagging injuries, they could limit minutes a little bit or not play with the same motivation. Auburn is 161st in defensive rebound rate, which is a little scary on the road against the team ranked 1st in the country in offensive rebound rate. Despite having the size of Broome and Cardwell, they don’t dominate the defensive glass. Auburn’s defense also doesn’t force a ton of turnovers despite turning Kentucky over 18 times on Saturday. That is not the norm, so the lackadaisical ball security of the Aggies shouldn’t shine through tonight. If Auburn can limit Texas A&M on the glass and knock down the open threes that Buzz Williams is willing to give up, then they should be able to leave College Station with a win.

Outlook for Texas A&M:

As mentioned several times above, the Aggies are struggling. They have lost four consecutive games to Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Florida, so they are in desperate need of a win to feel good going into March Madness. The environment should be wild tonight in College Station, as it usually is, and they have some advantages that they can expose against Bruce Pearl’s number-one-ranked team in the country. While the A&M offense is not very efficient, they are 1st in the country in offensive rebound rate. They should be able to expose Auburn in this area, which is good because the guards of Texas A&M have been wildly inefficient all season with Wade Taylor IV and Zhuric Phelps both shooting a percentage in the mid-30s from the field. A&M can let their guards throw it up on the glass, and they will have the advantage to grab rebounds and win the shot volume battle against the Tigers who are in the middle of the pack in defensive rebound rate. With all of these second chances comes a lot of trips to the foul line. Just a side note, but this game might take 3 hours and end at midnight with how many fouls might get called in this game. Texas A&M is 23rd in free throw rate, while Auburn is 317th in free throw rate allowed. In simple terms, A&M gets to the line a lot while Auburn commits a lot of fouls. Couple that with A&M’s offensive rebounding and Taylor and Phelps’ ability to be super streaky and Buzz Williams’ squad may be able to get off the losing train. It feels like Auburn is due for one of those streaky games from Taylor and/or Phelps, who both should be locked in and desperate for a win. Defensively, over the four-game losing streak, Texas A&M’s opponents are shooting 42% from three. While that is the shot that their defense is willing to give up, they are due for some positive regression and missed shots in one of these games. It makes a lot of sense that it could be here in their home environment against a team with not nearly as much to play for this week. If Texas A&M can continue to dominate the shot volume battle and the free throw line, then they should be able to finally get back in the win column.

The Final Word:

This is all about the spot. Auburn is the better team, but Texas A&M is at home with a lot more to play for and areas of the Tigers’ attack that they can expose. Look for the Aggies to live on the offensive glass and at the free throw line, as well as getting big games from Wade Taylor IV and/or Zhuric Phelps. The Aggies will sell out to shut down Broome, so Auburn will need to shoot the ball well from beyond the arc yet again. Their motivation won’t be high enough and the energy in Reed Arena will be too much. Texas A&M will cover the number and we are going out on a limb to say that they will take down the country’s number one team.