Best Bet for 1/15

Pittsburgh at Florida State (+2)

Tucker Center, Tallahassee, FL

9:00 pm EST on ESPNU

An ACC battle will take place on Wednesday night in Tallahassee, as the Florida State Seminoles will host the Pittsburgh Panthers. Both teams are coming off fairly disappointing performances. Florida State was handled by 20 at Clemson, and Pittsburgh endured their 2nd straight loss in a home defeat to Louisville, 82-78. With both of these teams looking to bounce back in a big way, it will be the road Pittsburgh Panthers we will be making a case for today.

Pittsburgh’s back-to-back losses don’t look the greatest on the surface, but they may have lost to the top 2 teams in the ACC, so it is difficult to fault them too much for these performances. They were dominated in the final 10 minutes by Duke on the road after hanging around for the first 30 minutes, and the Louisville Cardinals look like the 2nd best team in the league at the moment, as they have won 7 straight games. 

The Panthers are now also back at full strength after dealing with some injuries in their backcourt. Damian Dunn was sidelined for 7 games due to a torn ligament in his thumb, and Ish Leggett was dealing with an ankle injury for a few games but looks much healthier now. For a backcourt that is already thin, being at full health is imperative for this team to have success, and they now look ready to start trending in the right direction.

As for the actual matchup, Pittsburgh’s ball security should go a long way against a Florida State team that creates a ton of defensive value from their ball pressure (21.1% TO rate, 41st nationally). The Seminoles will have a much more difficult time generating turnovers against a Pittsburgh team that is 29th nationally in turnover rate, and the sure handedness of Jaland Lowe and Ishmael Leggett is one of the most underrated qualities of any team in the ACC. This should create problems for an FSU team that doesn’t have many fallback options on the defensive end, as they rank just 210th nationally in defensive rebound rate and 113th in 2-point field goal percentage defense. Lowe and Leggett should be able to break down this FSU defense that doesn’t have elite lateral movers to stay in front of quick guards. 

On the other side of the floor, Pittsburgh’s ability to defend in transition is a major factor. Per Synergy, The Panthers allow transition opportunities just 13% of the time (21st percentile), and when teams do get out in transition, the Panthers are in the 84th percentile in points per possession against. Keeping the Seminoles in the halfcourt could give Leonard Hamilton’s squad major trouble, as they have been considered to be a transition reliant offense in his tenure. That notion holds true this season, as the Seminoles play in transition on 22% of their offensive possessions (95th percentile). Unless Jamir Watkins’ shotmaking and Malique Ewin’s offensive rebounding ability do not hurt the Panthers too much, this looks like a great matchup for coach Jeff Capel’s squad.

Buying low on the Panthers looks like the way to go on Wednesday night, as I have not given up on this team after their 2 losses against quality competition. Pittsburgh has a great opportunity to get right, and Florida State’s current home court advantage won’t scare me off. Back the Panthers in a buy low spot.

Best Bet: Pittsburgh -2 (-110), play to -3