Best Bet for Thursday, 1/9

Arkansas State at South Alabama (-1.5)

Mitchell Center, Mobile, AL

8:00 pm EST on ESPN+

We will be diving into the mid-major landscape for our best bet today, and it will be a Sun Belt Conference matchup between the Arkansas State Red Wolves and the South Alabama Jaguars. The Red Wolves and Jaguars should be considered tier 1 contenders in this league, so winning this game would be a major step forward in accomplishing their season goals. These are also 2 high quality teams on the national scale, as both teams rank inside the top 110 in KenPom’s overall efficiency metric and have also proved their worth by stepping up in class and competing with high major foes. Arkansas State competed with Alabama for 40 minutes, losing by just 9 points, and they were able to take down the Memphis Tigers on the road in a dominating 13 point victory. As for South Alabama, they do not have any signature wins, but they were able to keep games between Ole Miss and TCU within 10 points.

There will be plenty of 3-point shooting in this contest with both teams ranking inside the top 100 nationally in 3-point attempt rate, so this factor in itself creates more variance. But when you add in the fact that South Alabama’s defense gives up the highest 3-point attempt rate in the entire country, there is potential for many in-game swings. The Jaguars almost exclusively run a tightly packed 2-3 zone, daring teams to beat them over the top, and in turn has led them to allowing the highest percentage of jump shots in the country. South Alabama also allows the lowest rim attempt rate in the nation, further showing what their defense is trying to accomplish. 

This style of defense could potentially be bad news for South Alabama, as Arkansas State has plenty of weapons on the perimeter. The Red Wolves’ guard group has showcased the ability to knock down the 3-point shot at a high clip, but much of this roster is shooting below expectation this year. Terrance Ford, Derrian Ford, and Avery Felts are shooting 9% worse or more than their career averages, so there is more than likely some positive shooting regression coming their way. Even if this trio isn’t making shots at a high clip, Arkansas State still has other perimeter options in Taryn Todd (36% 3pt) and Joseph Pinion (42% 3pt) to pick up the slack. Obviously, the Red Wolves will have a tough time scoring if the 3-point shot isn’t falling, but their frontcourt has a good chance to generate some value on the offensive glass. The trio of Rayshaud Marshall, Izaiyah Nelson, and Dyondre Dominguez display solid physicality and athleticism and could expose this zone defense in South Alabama that ranks just 191st nationally in defensive rebound rate. Arkansas State should also hold their own in the turnover battle, an area that South Alabama excels in, but the Red Wolves are inside the top 100 nationally in offensive turnover rate so they can at least hold their own in that regard. 

The Arkansas State defense also displays elite athleticism across the board, which can be an area that gives almost any mid-major program problems. The Red Wolves length on the wings allows them to stay home on shooters and not allow spot up opportunities (11th percentile in spot up chances allowed), and this is a trait that can give them an edge against a South Alabama team that loves to fire away from 3-point land off the catch. The weak point of the Red Wolves defense lies in the rebounding category (300th nationally in DREB rate), but the Jaguars prefer to not attack the offensive glass to set up their 2-3 zone (247th in DREB rate) so this shouldn’t be an area of concern for Brian Hodgson’s squad.

As for the actual handicap on this game, our starting position will be taking the points with Arkansas State, but this looks to be a great game to frequently live bet. There could be some major swings in this game with both teams looking to shoot as many 3’s as possible, but I prefer the Red Wolves, as they are due for positive regression shooting the ball and are the better team when it comes to defending the perimeter. The Jaguars are most likely due for negative regression defensively, so I expect this style of defense to struggle tonight. If live betting isn’t your style, I would recommend taking the money line with Arkansas State, but it will be a half unit wager on the Red Wolves to start the game, and I will then be looking to live trade this game on both sides when appropriate.

Best Bet: Arkansas State +1.5 for a half unit, then live betting depending on 3-point shooting splits