Best Bet 2/13

San Francisco at Gonzaga (-14)

McCarthey Athletic Center, Spokane, WA

11:00 pm EST on ESPN

A matchup between West Coast Conference contenders will take place in Spokane, as the San Francisco Dons will visit the Gonzaga Bulldogs Thursday night. Both the Dons and Zags are chasers of the Saint Mary’s Gaels (12-1 league record) in the WCC, so we can consider this game to be important in terms of staying in the hunt. However, the Zags home court and offensive advantages may be too much to overcome, so we will be laying the big number of -14.

Gonzaga has advantages on the interior in this game and that starts with the elite post up game of Graham Ike and company. Per Synergy, the Zags rank in the 99th percentile in post up frequency and are in the 98th percentile in points per possession on these play types, so we can consider this to be a major edge against a San Francisco team who ranks in just the 32nd percentile in points per possession against post up actions. San Francisco typically will not double down in the post, but the interior dominance for the Zags will more than likely force the Dons’ hand when it comes to switching their defensive coverages. The recent uptick in zone usage might be something we see from Chris Gerlufsen’s squad, as the Dons’ 2-3 zone had success against an interior reliant Saint Mary’s team. However, Gonzaga has capable shooting in Ryan Nembhard, Nolan Hickman, and Khalif Battle who can make you pay the price if there is a lack of attention being given to them. The Dons could also be due for some negative 3-point shooting regression on the defensive end, and while they are an elite catch and shoot denial defense (4th percentile in catch and shoot frequency allowed), opponents are shooting just 18% from beyond the arc during their 6-1 run. For a defense that has been poor inside the arc (56.6% 2pt FG% allowed, 10th in WCC play), you can say they’ve been a bit fortunate on that end.

While Gonzaga has plenty of offensive advantages in this contest, their defensive resurgence has been much more impressive lately. After their 2 game skid against Oregon State and Santa Clara where the Zags were carved up on the interior (63% 2pt FG% allowed in said games), coach Mark Few made an adjustment to his rotations. The Zags’ head coach added Emmanuel Innocenti to the starting lineup to bolster their athleticism on the wing, and the change has paid dividends so far. When you account for games played since the lineup change was made on January 25th (5 games), Gonzaga’s adjusted defensive rating is 15th in the nation, per Torvik. Yes, the Zags have been a bit fortunate defending the 3-point shot (27.2% 3pt FG% allowed in last 5), but this defense is solid in catch and shoot denial, and their interior defense has vastly improved over this recent stretch of games. Innocenti is especially important in this matchup against the Dons, who have a plethora of tough shot making guards that can make teams pay if they are weak on the wing. Nembhard and Hickman will need to step up defensively tonight as well, as my only concern in this game is the perimeter creation of Malik Thomas and Marcus Williams for the Dons, but I am a buyer of the new look defense the Zags are bringing to the table tonight.

We could potentially be paying a tax on Gonzaga here, as they are typically overpriced in WCC play, but this looks to be a good motivational spot for them after losing their last big game in this league against Saint Mary’s. I believe San Francisco’s fortunate stretch comes to an end tonight in Spokane, and the home environment at McCarthey arena will be too much to handle. Give me the Zags laying a big number.

Best Bet: Gonzaga -14