Best Bet 2/14

UCLA vs Indiana (+1)

Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN

8:00 PM EST on FOX

UCLA’s road woes have been discussed on the national level for much of the season (0-5 outside of pacific time zone), and Mick Cronin has been vocal about his opinion on his team’s travel situation, but the Bruins seem to be set up for success on Friday night. First off, the travel shouldn’t play much of a factor in this contest, as UCLA played Illinois on Tuesday night and should be more acclimated to the central time zone. Secondly, the situational spot and matchup favor the Bruins in my eyes.

On the defensive end, the Bruins’ hard hedging rim denial defense should set up well against an Indiana team that isn’t nearly as comfortable on the perimeter. The Hoosiers will most likely be forced to make a high number of jump shots against a Bruins defense that allows shots at the rim just 33% of the time (7th percentile, per Synergy). The Hoosiers prefer to score through the post-up game of Oumar Ballo and Malik Reneau, but there may not be much of an avenue for success with Cronin’s style of defense cutting this action off by doubling almost every post touch. UCLA’s #1 nationally ranked turnover rate defense (24% TO rate) should also be able to bother Indiana’s guard group that has struggled with ball handling all year long (17.3% TO rate, 184th nationally). Coach Woodson has mixed up his guard rotation often during league play, opting for more Trey Galloway minutes at the point guard position at times, and I believe that could be a bad proposition in this matchup against an aggressive UCLA perimeter. 

The offensive end is making real progress for the Bruins, and the additional Aday Mara minutes seem to be the biggest reason why. Cronin has been searching for answers on offense all season due to the lack of a go-to perimeter threat, but The 2-headed interior monster of Mara and Tyler Bilodeau has allowed this offense to fire on all cylinders for the first time this year. Mara is limited mobility wise and can be matchup dependent at times (only 8 minutes played last game), but against the 2-big lineup of Indiana I expect him to get plenty of playing time. 

Since January 21st, which was the first game of Mara’s role expansion, UCLA ranks 11th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, per Torvik. Part of the reason why the Bruins have been much better is fortunate shooting splits, but they look like a much more balanced unit at this point in time, so there are real elements to the recent resurgence.

Yes, Indiana is coming off a massive road win over #11 ranked Michigan State, but Woodson’s implementation of a 2-3 zone was a big reason why they were able to win that game in East Lansing. I portray this in a negative light mostly because Michigan State has essentially no shooting to beat any sort of zone (28.8% from 3, 353rd nationally), and it will be much more difficult to slow down the hot shooting Bruins with this style of defense. Indiana has played better than its recent record shows, but this can be considered a let down spot. However, this is mostly a play on UCLA, and I am not particularly afraid of their road woes with their favorable schematic matchup.

Best Bet: UCLA -1