Best Bet 2/21

Michigan State at Michigan (-3.5)

Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI

8:00 PM EST on FOX

An in-state rivalry will be the featured game on a smaller Friday slate, but this game should be a treat to watch. This would be a high energy game regardless of the stakes, but a seat atop the Big Ten standings is on the line in Ann Arbor. Despite the Wolverines being at home and riding a 6-game winning streak, we will be making a case for the road Spartans as a small underdog.

There are some holes to poke in Michigan’s current run through the Big Ten. Their winning streak looks good on the surface, but all 6 wins are by a margin of 4 points or less and their competition hasn’t necessarily been the greatest, as only 1 win during this run was against a team with a winning record in league play (Purdue at home). The Wolverines can be considered a streaky team, as they can look unstoppable for stretches of a game, but their turnover issues can bring them back to earth and allow anyone in this league to compete with them (20.2% offensive TO rate, 332nd nationally). In my eyes, there is only a matter of time before this major offensive flaw catches up with them.

While Michigan State doesn’t force turnovers at a high rate (233rd in defensive TO rate), Tom Izzo is a coach you can trust on the defensive end. The Spartans are currently 15th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per Torvik, and this will be one of the tougher defenses the Wolverines will see all year long. Coach Izzo’s deep frontcourt rotation will be key in this matchup against the dynamic Wolverine frontcourt duo of Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin, and having fresh bodies to throw at them for all 40 minutes will be an aspect this duo hasn’t seen all year. 

The Spartans’ offensive rebounding ability will be key in this matchup as well (36.6% OREB rate, 16th nationally). Michigan State isn’t the greatest shooting squad (140th nationally in EFG%), so gaining extra possessions in a road environment will go a long way against an efficient shooting offense like the Wolverines. However, the Wolverines’ drop coverage/catch and shoot denial defense should give the Spartans opportunities to operate in the mid-range and painted area, as this is where their guards are most efficient anyways (36.2% mid-range, 50.1% in the paint). 

Michigan State is a dangerous road underdog with their ability to dominate the shot volume battle in this matchup. Add in the Wolverines’ season long late game woes, and taking the points looks to be the right call. Michigan State +3.5 will be my starting position for a half unit, but I will be looking to add the rest of my wager live at a better price.

Best Bet: Michigan State +3.5 (0.5 unit), adding more live a better price