Best Bets for 2/8
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Michigan at Indiana (+3.5)
Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN
1:00 pm EST on CBS
A highly anticipated matchup will take place at Assembly Hall on Saturday afternoon with the Michigan Wolverines visiting the Indiana Hoosiers. There are many factors that make this game intriguing, but the reports of Mike Woodson potentially stepping down from his head coaching position at season’s end is the most important. This news comes after a 4 game losing streak for the Hoosiers, so it will be interesting to see how this group responds after the Woodson buzz. As for the Wolverines, they are currently on a 3 game winning streak, but single digit victories over middle/bottom Big Ten teams in Penn State, Rutgers, and Oregon haven’t been too inspiring. In a matchup between teams trending in opposite directions, I will be making a case for the Indiana Hoosiers as a small underdog.
Although we don’t truly know how these Hoosier players will react to the Mike Woodson controversy, a high energy/back against the wall effort will be expected from me. We have seen plenty of teams step up and play well in the short term after a coach retires or gets fired, and a good example comes from the Big Ten conference last season, where Ohio State fired Chris Holtmann and the Buckeyes proceeded to beat a top 5 Purdue team their very next game (also won 6 of 8 to end the season). This isn’t an exact replica of that situation, but it is a prime example of a team stepping up when their back is against the wall. Indiana also has the talent to play up against quality competition, and I love to back motivated talent as an underdog.
As for the actual matchup, Indiana’s offense should feel comfortable in this game against a more passive Michigan defense. The Hoosiers have dealt with turnover issues throughout the season (17.7% TO rate, 209th nationally), but this is a Wolverines’ defense that most likely won’t exploit that area with their deep drop coverage style (14.2% TO rate defense in league play, 17th in Big Ten). The Wolverine drop coverage does well when it comes to running opposing offenses off the 3-point line and forces them into the mid range area, however, the Hoosiers have one of the lowest 3-point attempt rates in the country (321st nationally) and actually prefer to operate in the mid range and painted areas. The mid range creation of Myles Rice and Mackenzie Mgbako leads the way for the perimeter offense that is in the 65th percentile in FG% in this particular area, and their shooting can go a long way when it comes to exploiting the Wolverine defense that ranks in the 15th percentile in mid range FG% against.
On the defensive end, Indiana’s frontcourt of Malik Reneau and Oumar Ballo will be tested against the versatile Michigan frontcourt of Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin. However, the sheer size of Indiana’s frontcourt will give them the best chance at containing Wolf and Goldin on the glass.
Michigan has also displayed some poor offensive efforts on the road, as they were only able to score 66 points against a mediocre Rutgers defense last Saturday. Most of their offensive issues have stemmed from their inability to take care of the ball (336th nationally in TO rate). I would say Michigan is in a decent situation to limit their turnovers against this Indiana defense, but the Wolverines will turn the ball over against anyone they play. Michigan has turned the ball 17% of the time or less in just 3 of 11 conference games this season. Indiana should receive extra possessions in this game with their ability to compete on the glass and win the turnover battle (something they usually don’t accomplish).
It may be scary to back an Indiana team that looks to be in a free fall, but the motivational factor + the road woes of Michigan lead me to back the Hoosiers +3.5 on Saturday. If Indiana is unable to keep this game tight, this is a team I could see packing it in for the year, but I expect 1 last great effort from Woodson’s squad.
Best Bet: Indiana +3.5
Marquette at Creighton (-1.5)
CHI Health Center, Omaha, NE
2:00 pm EST on FOX
The Marquette Golden Eagles will visit the Creighton Bluejays in a rematch from early January in which the Golden Eagles won 79-71 in Milwaukee. As for the recent performances from these Big East title contenders, it has been Creighton that looks like the better team as of late. The Bluejays are on a current 8 game winning streak with notable victories over UConn and Villanova. As for Marquette, they have lost back to back games against UConn and St. John’s, where they were bludgeoned on the glass and looked overmatched athletically. Despite the recent performances, we will be backing a Marquette team that may be a bit undervalued at this point.
This can certainly be classified as a buy low/sell high spot given these teams recent efforts, but the matchup also appears to favor the Golden Eagles. As many people know, Marquette’s high octane pressure generates plenty of turnovers (4th nationally in TO rate defense) and they seem to have a major advantage over a Creighton team that doesn’t have much ball handling depth. Creighton only turned the ball over 12 times in the first meeting, but I will trust the Bluejays season long turnover numbers when it comes to determining who has the advantage here (256th nationally in TO rate). As for the rebound battle, Marquette is susceptible to giving up plenty of second chance opportunities, as shown in their last 2 games against UConn and St. John’s (combined 30 offensive rebounds allowed). However, Creighton’s 303rd ranked offensive rebound rate gives the Golden Eagles a great chance to keep up on the glass, and you can classify this as a big advantage if Marquette can find a way to win in that aspect.
Marquette has a chance to break down the Creighton drop coverage defense as well. The Golden Eagles have capable shooters at all 5 positions on the floor, and if they are able to draw 3-time Big East defensive player of the year Ryan Kalkbrenner away from the basket, you could see Marquette have success from all areas of the court. Stevie Mitchell could be considered the weak point of Marquette’s perimeter offense, and coach McDermott decided to essentially not guard him and force him to make open shots. Kalkbrenner was technically the man covering him but was sitting in the paint to help protect the rim. Mitchell went 2-9 from 3-point range in the first matchup, but he is 18-47 (38%) overall this season, so if he can make a couple early 3’s in this game, Creighton’s defense has a real chance of breaking down. Kam Jones having success in the pick and roll game is important to get this offense going as well. Per Synergy, Jones is in the 89th percentile in points per possession in pick and roll ball handler situations, and this should go a long way against a Creighton team that allows this action in the 100th percentile frequency wise.
Although Creighton looks like the better team at this point in the year, I will back the full body of work the Golden Eagles have displayed this season and take them as a small road underdog on Saturday afternoon. Marquette has advantages in the shot volume category, and their capable spacing at all 5 positions provides them with a good chance to give Creighton issues.
Best Bet: Marquette +1.5