Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Best Bets

The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, known as “Arch Madness”, is one of my personal favorite mid-major conference tournaments every year. The loud atmosphere to go along with the quality of play brings a ton of excitement, and the winner of this league is almost always live to take down a power conference team in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Drake enters the MVC tournament as the betting favorite (-110 odds), but there are plenty of teams capable of winning this league and earning the automatic bid. 

Fading Drake is the angle to take when betting the MVC tournament futures market. The Bulldogs have been the undisputed best team in the league, however, they have looked vulnerable for a few reasons. The main reason is their pace of play, which ranks dead last in the country from an adjusted tempo standpoint (364th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom). Less possessions in a game means less opportunities to defeat teams by sizable margins, and we saw the Drake Bulldogs play with fire on multiple occasions due to their style. 8 of Drake’s 17 conference wins came by single digits, with 4 of those wins coming in overtime (2 OT games vs Missouri State, 2-18 record), so we can consider these Bulldogs to have been a bit fortunate throughout league play. Drake’s turnover issues could potentially allow for lesser opponents to hang around as well (294th nationally in TO rate). The fact that Drake sits as the odds-on favorite to win this tournament with these flaws leads me to believe there is significant value down the odds board.

Best Bets

Bradley +340 (DraftKings), Illinois State +1800 (Caesar’s)

Having multiple positions fading Drake is the way I will be approaching the MVC tournament. Bradley seems to have the most talented offense in this league, shown by their #1 nationally ranked 3-point percentage. The floor spacing capability at all 5 positions for Bradley makes them an extremely tough cover for anyone, giving them the upside to run through the MVC tourney. The Braves would avoid the Bulldogs until the championship game, but they have also shown the ability to compete with Drake, as they split the season series.

As for Illinois State, the path will not be easy, but their offense is also capable of beating anyone in this league. The Redbirds are on the 5 seed line and did not earn a bye to the quarterfinals, but they will face 12 seed Missouri State in the first round who they should handle business against. Illinois State would also avoid Drake until the semifinals, and I believe the Redbirds matchup is favorable against the Bulldogs. Rebounding is extremely important against Drake, and Illinois State is 10th nationally in defensive rebound percentage. They also take care of the ball at a high level (66th nationally in TO rate), which is another key against the Bulldogs. However, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Drake is eliminated in the quarterfinals vs either Indiana State or Southern Illinois, so grabbing the large number of +1800 before the tournament begins looks like the correct angle. 

Best Bets: Bradley +340 (0.4 units), Illinois State +1800 (0.1 units)