Player Props 1/14

Texas A&M at Kentucky

Pharrel Payne over 9.5 points (-117), 1 unit

The absence of Wade Taylor IV (15.7ppg) has led to a change of roles within the Aggies offense. Zhuric Phelps has taken on most of the scoring load in the 2 games Taylor has missed, scoring 29 points per game on an astounding 27 shots per game, but Aggie’s big man Pharrel Payne has seen much more usage as well. 

Payne’s extra usage was noticeable in A&M’s last game against Alabama, where he scored 23 points on 6-8 shooting and also took 15 free throws. Payne received 7 post-up opportunities on Saturday night, the most he has received in a game all season, and this looks to be another good matchup for him. Just like Alabama, Kentucky almost never doubles down in the post and trusts their big men to defend one on one, so this should lead to many opportunities for Payne to score. Per Synergy, Kentucky is in the 80th percentile in post-up frequency allowed, but in just the 40th percentile defending these play types, so consider Payne to be in a great spot volume wise and efficiency wise. 

Payne doesn’t see a major number of minutes (18.1mpg), but he has seen an uptick since Taylor went down with his knee injury, playing 20 minutes and 24 minutes respectively. I believe coach Buzz Williams saw Pharrel Payne’s post-up game take some pressure off the Aggie’s guard play, which struggles to make shots in the first place, so we should see Payne’s minutes and volume continue to go up. 

There are ladder opportunities here as well, as DraftKings is offering Payne to score 15+ at +380 odds. The added usage clearly creates some value on Payne’s upside, so that is a direction to look at as well, but we will officially only be playing his regular points total of 9.5.

Jaxson Robinson 4+ threes made (+225), Koby Brea 4+ threes made (+330), 0.5 units each

The Texas A&M defensive scheme is a major reason why we are taking the route of multiple Kentucky players to have big games. Firstly, A&M’s rim denial defense should play right into the hands of these Kentucky shooters. The Aggies are in the 13th percentile in rim frequency allowed, but this is at the expense of allowing 47% of opponents field goal attempts to come from 3-point land. Secondly, the Aggies allow transition opportunities on 19% of possessions (89th percentile) and are rather poor when it comes to defending them, so an up-tempo contest could be in store at Rupp Arena. Buzz Williams has been pretty stubborn when it comes to the style of play he prefers, so we shouldn’t expect anything different tonight.

The 2 players that profile best against this A&M defense look to be Jaxson Robinson and Koby Brea. The 2 Kentucky wings profile as more off the ball guards, which is the type of player we are looking for against this Aggie’s defense, as primary handlers struggle a bit against this style. While Brea and Robinson don’t operate in spot-up play types at the highest volume (Brea 34th percentile, Robinson 17th percentile), Texas A&M essentially forces you to operate in spot-up (96th percentile allowed). There are not many other shooters I would prefer in catch and shoot situations over the 2 options we are going with today.

Koby Brea is known as one of the top shooters in the entire country (48% from 3 this season), and despite his lack of spot-up volume, he is in the 100th percentile in efficiency in this play type, making him extremely dangerous tonight. As for Robinson, he is no slouch in this area either, as he ranks in the 65th percentile in spot-up efficiency.

Playing both alternate lines is the way I will be betting this, as only 1 player will need to cash to return a profit here. The 3-point volume A&M gives up is too good to pass up, and there is a real chance we see both of these sharpshooters have big days. A half unit play on each is most likely the way to go, as we do not want too much liability on one game.

Illinois at Indiana

Oumar Ballo over 15.5 points (-115), 1 unit

Since the loss of Malik Reneau (14.1ppg) due to a knee injury, coach Mike Woodson has turned to Oumar Ballo to carry a heavy workload in the post. In the 4 games Reneau has missed, Ballo has averaged 18.8 points per game, while eclipsing tonight's point total of 15.5 in 3 of the 4 contests. The one game that he went under 15.5 points was in Indiana’s last game against Iowa, where they lost by 25, but Ballo saw just 24 minutes due to the blowout. 

Ballo looks to be in a great spot against the Fighting Illini defense. Illinois coach Brad Underwood prefers that opponents score 1 on 1 against them, as he trusts his personnel to defend at a high level in these situations. With this style comes a very low amount of assisted baskets for the opposition, and Underwood has one particular defender that he trusts on the low block, which is Croatian big man Tomislav Ivisic. Ivisic grades out as one of the better post-up defenders (99th percentile in post-up defense) in the entire country, and his ability to defend on his own on the interior allows the other Illini defenders to stay at home and take away catch and shoot opportunities.

Despite Ivisic grading out as an elite post defender, we will be backing Oumar Ballo to have a solid day. Coach Mike Woodson will almost never go away from his post-up heavy offense (90th percentile in post-up frequency), and Ballo has been reaping all of the benefits from this with the absence of Reneau. Ivisic’s post-up defense numbers also could be a bit flawed, as he hasn’t seen a high caliber big man like Ballo all season long. With this, expect Ballo to receive lots of opportunities on the low block.  Ballo will also be used as the main pick and roll man and has seen much more volume in this play type in the last 3 games, plus Illinois allows a pick and roll man frequency in the 93rd percentile and defends this play type in just the 34th percentile.

The volume alone Ballo will receive gives him a great chance to eclipse his point total over 15.5. The post-up efficiency may not be great against Ivisic tonight, but trust the stubborn Mike Woodson to continue to feed his big man, leading to a big night.